Harvard University: U.S. remodeling industry poised for growth
“As both the economy and the housing market stabilize, so too will homeowner improvement spending,” says Abbe Will, a researcher with the Remodeling Futures Program. Over the coming years, remodeling expenditures are expected to increase at an inflation-adjusted 3.5 percent average annual rate, below the pace during the housing boom, but sharply recovering from the recent downturn.
The report notes that the remodeling industry’s double-digit decline, which peaked in 2007, “is beginning to return to a more typical pattern of growth. Market fundamentals-the number of homes in the housing stock, the age of those homes, and the income gains of homeowners making improvements-all point to increases in remodeling spending.”
“Metropolitan areas with rising house prices, older housing stocks, higher incomes and home values, and a larger share of upscale remodeling expenditures, such as Boston, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, are well-positioned for an upturn in remodeling activity,” says Eric Belsky, managing director of the Joint Center.
Further, according to the report, the focus of remodeling spending in the next five years will “shift from upper-end discretionary projects to replacements and systems upgrades. Remodeling contractors have a number of growth opportunities generated by underinvestment in distressed properties, lower mobility, changing migration patterns, and the rise of environmental awareness.”
“Lower household mobility following the housing market crash means that in the coming years homeowners will increasingly focus on improvements with longer paybacks, particularly energy-efficient retrofits,” says Kermit Baker, director of the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center. “Also, a slowing of migration to traditionally fast-growing Sunbelt metro areas means that, at least temporarily, more remodeling spending will remain in older, slower-growing areas in the Rustbelt and in California.”
Read the full text of the report here.